With the results of the Lok Sabha elections, the Parliament of India has been suspended and regional parties are seen to dominate the power equation. Compared to the past, the total number of votes received by the BJP has not decreased significantly, but the number of seats has been a big blow to the BJP. With the emergence of regional parties with a different number of seats than expected, it has also started to be analyzed that there may be an eclipse in the alliance to form the BJP government under the leadership of Narendra Modi.
Even though the NDA coalition government was formed under the leadership of Modi, the stability of the government has been questioned. The number of seats won by provincial parties has increased the bargaining power within the BJP-led NDA alliance. It is not that the parties within the NDA alliance are not rumored to be negotiating with the Congress-led opposition alliance as well. Even before the results of all the votes have been announced, reports have come out that the Congress-led India Alliance has already offered Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar the post of Deputy Prime Minister. As a result, it has been estimated that there may be a break in Indian Prime Minister Modi’s ambition to lead the government for an unbroken third i.e. for 15 years. I am going to discuss this matter in detail.
Modi himself claimed that the BJP alone would win 400 seats in the Lok Sabha elections. During the election period, either BJP or Modi rarely talked about the ANI alliance in every election rally. Some of the BJP leaders said that forming an alliance, i.e. NDA, should be understood in the sense that it should be taken as a gesture of generosity and not as a compulsion to form a coalition.
But the vote result has not only established once again the comment that the craze of BJP and Modi is decreasing, forming an alliance is not the generosity of BJP and Modi but it is a necessity, but it has also reminded the recent status of BJP and Modi. The confirmation of this argument was also taken from the speech of Modi and Bharatiya Janata Party leaders at the thanksgiving meeting after the election results were announced on Tuesday. Modi himself thanked the voters for the historic vote saying that the NDA alliance is going to form a new government with a clear majority, but his boast of ‘Ab ki bar char saun par’ was not heard.
Since the current BJP leadership does not have the culture of sustaining a coalition government, it has been predicted that the coalition government will not last a full term even if it remains in place. Forming a coalition government in India is not a new phenomenon. From 1998 to 2004, the coalition NDA government led by former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Bajpayee and two terms from 2004 to 2014, the UPA coalition government led by Manmohan Singh of Congress successfully ran the entire term.
But at the present time, the simplicity and diplomatic ingenuity required in politics as well as the tolerance in personal nature are not present among the politicians who are currently on the political stage, so there is plenty of room to question the stability of the coalition government. Chandradev Bhatt says. He argues that no matter who the government is formed under the leadership of BJP, they will be able to lead the coalition culture due to the tendency of arrogance, isolation and single-minded decision making in the government for 10 years.
Even if the politics within the BJP is to take Dr. Bhatt’s words, it seems that there will be many tikdams from within the BJP to break the Modi-Amit Shah juggling act in the discussion of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, political stardom and BJP. If these activities are not from within the BJP, it is not an exaggeration to analyze that the other parties and leaders in the BJP-led coalition can play political games at any time to undermine the political stardom of BJP and Modi.
The sign of which is the shock given to the BJP by Uttar Pradesh in the election through the vote results. Even in the state where Modi contested the election, the BJP is not able to perform well. Even though Ram Mandir was built and inaugurated with fanfare in the run-up to the elections, Modi and BJP’s strategy has also been taken in the sense that it has failed. Even in the area where the Ayodhya temple is located, the BJP candidate was defeated.
Not only that, the Samajwadi Party led by Akhilesh Yadav, the strongest partner of the Congress in Uttar Pradesh, has overtaken the BJP. While in Uttar Pradesh, the current Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, who is said to be a true follower of BJP’s mother organization RSS, is running a government with a full majority for the second term. And even in Uttar Pradesh, the BJP could not make the election results in its favor. The BJP leaders themselves are saying that they are shocked by the result of the Uttar Pradesh polls.
If we read the Indian political analysts and media comments, Adityanath was projected to be the prime ministerial candidate after Modi in the BJP. In order to stop Adityanath, it is being said that Amit Shah and other leaders have clouded the BJP politics in Uttar Pradesh and its effect has failed to reach the majority. It is being said that Adityanath is trying to answer from Uttar Pradesh in the Lok Sabha elections as an attempt to put a brake on him by saying ‘Delhi Abhi Tumhare liye door hai’. And the results showed the same. And this will affect the journey of Adityanath’s power chariot towards Delhi.
On the other hand, the speculation that BJP’s ex-president Rajnath Singh, Nitin Gadkari and other leaders can stop the Gujarati power trade by promoting the Modi-Shah equation within the BJP to other provincial parties within the alliance is limited to speculation! You don’t have to wait for many days for this. Even if Modi becomes the Prime Minister immediately, Amit Shah does not seem comfortable now. Shah is considered as a leader who believes only in self-determination and is more arrogant than Modi in Indian politics.
The issue of who will be the Prime Minister after Modi is also going to create a stir after some time even if it is not within the NDA alliance now. This signal was also raised during the election campaign. What is that, the leaders of the opposition alliance are saying that there is a provision in the constitution of the BJP that leaders who have reached the age of 75 should retire from executive and active politics. But Amit Shah countered it by saying that there is no such provision in the BJP constitution.
On the other hand, in media reports some time ago, it is said that the Chief Minister of Gujarat State, Annadbain Patel, retired from active politics and became the Governor after completing 75 years. In 2016, there were media reports that Najma Heptullah had also resigned from the Modi cabinet due to age. Similarly, LK Advani, Murali Manohar Joshi, Yashwant Sinha are also accused of being sidelined by the BJP because of their age.
Showing these arguments and facts, the opposition alliance is saying that on September 17, 2024, Modi will reach the age of 75 and retire. But the BJP has refuted this as rhetoric. BJP leaders may be forced to say this during the election. Because the BJP has not hidden from anywhere that it has been fighting elections on Modi’s political stardom. Born on September 17, 1950, Modi is turning 75 next September. Now the question is whether Modi will retire from active politics as the opposition has said! If you don’t take it, all the arguments will be limited to Dantabjana. But if he retires as the opposition said, who will be his successor? And what do the other parties and leaders in the coalition do? Will have to wait for some time.
While saying this, a moral question has arisen in front of Indian Prime Minister Modi. In 2014, the clear majority was 282 and in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, BJP alone won 303 seats. But the craze of BJP and Modi, who claim to have beaten the world by holding power for 10 years, has decreased instead of increasing in 2024. In this sense, will Modi lead the government for the next five years and come close to the record of Jawaharlal Nehru, the first prime minister of independent India, who was the prime minister for 17 years from 1947 to 1964!
